Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

FORECAST HINGES ON WHAT BECOMES OF UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN WATOR VAPOR IMAGERY.  CONCENSUS OF ETA AND AVN
IS THAT IT WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEN IT WILL ELONGATE AND PIVOT AND RUN FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY SATURDAY EVENING.  FROM THERE THE ETA AND AVN
DIVERGE WITH THE ETA TAKING IT SLIGHTLY EAST AND SHEARING IT OUT
WHILE THE AVN KEEPS IT OVER THE AREA AND THEN SHOVES IT WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  ALL IN ALL EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN THINK WILL HAVE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME HAVE SCATTERED TSRA WITH ONE OCCASIONALLY BECOMING
SEVERE.  I GOT HAILED ON ON THE WAY TO WORK AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT HAPPENS AGAIN TONIGHT.  BULK OF ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW.  EXPECT
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WHEN THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHEAR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
THUS...POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE HIGHER
THAN THOSE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS TIME GOES ON.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF RAIN.  YESTERDAYS
HIGHS REMAINED QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN.  NOT SURE WILL SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE. AM GOING TO
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY BASED ON THE FACT WE
COULD SEE SOME SUN.  DAY SHIFT CAN THEN TWEAK TEMPS DOWN OR UP A
CATEGORY ACCORDING TO WHAT DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SIMILAR PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A WARM UP
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AND SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUN BY THEN.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   85  68  85  68 /  50  50  30  30
FSM   84  65  84  66 /  50  50  50  50
MLC   85  68  85  68 /  50  50  50  50
BVO   84  66  84  66 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   82  63  82  63 /  50  50  50  50
BYV   82  63  82  63 /  50  50  50  50
MIO   82  63  82  63 /  50  50  30  30e
MKO   85  68  85  68 /  50  50  30  30
F10   85  68  85  68 /  50  50  30  30
HHW   84  67  84  68 /  50  50  50  50

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1158 PM    TULSA                     OK    1 INCH HAIL
06/28/01   TULSA                           81ST AND HARVARD. PRTD
                                           BY HAM RADIO SPOTTER.

1200 AM    TULSA                     OK    1.25 INCH HAIL
06/29/01   TULSA                           RPTD AT 71ST AND
                                           HARVARD BY HAM RADIO
                                           SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0406 AM    2 E COWETA                OK    1 INCH HAIL
06/29/01   WAGONER                         SPOTTER REPORT

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AS
COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW HELPS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 75. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND MIDDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN CARROLL
AND BENTON COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA. THESE ARE THE
PLACES WHICH ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SUN TODAY ALLOWING THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MILES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A NORTH-SOUTH BAND AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH.

.DAY TWO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. STORM SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
HINDER DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SUNSHINE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNDOWN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET ALONG AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT SMITH TO TULSA LINE. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10 PM. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND MAY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1100 UTC FRIDAY

AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

AREA 2...CARROLL AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

AREA 3...NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...50
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...60
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...15

AREA 4...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...15

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST OF A FAYETTEVILLE TO OZARK LINE IN
ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TONIGHT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
SOME FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE THE HEAVIEST ARAINS ARE MOST
PERSISTENT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA