Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2001

FORECAST FOR 1ST PERIOD HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. 00Z MESO-ETA WEAKENS STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OK AROUND 12Z
QUITE A BIT...BUT LATEST RADAR STILL SHOWS THEM LOOKING PRETTY
TOUGH. AIRMASS ACROSS SE OK IS PRIMED AND HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER
AS IT WAS OVER NE OK AND NW AR. COULD SEE ISOLATED SVR STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH. SHOULD SEE SHRA/TSRA LIKELY
THIS AM THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. IF STORMS FIZZLE BEFORE
ENTERING SE OK...THEN COULD SEE STORMS RE-FIRE THIS AFTERNOON JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS SE OK WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE DECENT BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SVR STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

BY TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL BE LONG GONE AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS COOL TEMPS. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER
FWC AND PREV FCST NUMBERS FOR MINS.

NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHCS ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE LONG GONE AND SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SE AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW. BEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM IF STG WARM FRONT DEVELOPS.

MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF UPR LOW TO EJECT OUT OF SW US...ETA
BRINGS OUT A POSITIVELY-TILTED S/W WHILE AVN KEEPS WAVE STRONGER AND
INTACT. BEST CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF UPR LOW...LOOKS LIKE SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST
CHC. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SUN AND TAKE OUT
EARLY WORDING.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...COOLER AND WINDY AS NICE FROPA
OCCURS. COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 40 MONDAY NIGHT IN NW AR WITH 40S TO
LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH DECREASING DIURNAL RANGES WITH TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL
LATELY WITH MAX TEMPS...AM LEARY OF KEEPING TEMPS TOO FAR BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BEYOND MONDAY IN THIS PATTERN.

FCSTID = 26
1ST PERIOD TEMPS AND POPS SUBJECT TO RADICAL CHANGES
TUL   82  63  84  65 /  50  10  20  30
FSM   81  63  85  66 /  50  10  20  20
MLC   84  65  86  68 /  40  10  20  20
BVO   80  60  83  62 /  60  10  20  40
FYV   80  60  82  62 /  60  10  20  30
BYV   80  59  81  61 /  60  10  20  30
MIO   80  60  82  62 /  60  10  20  30
MKO   83  64  85  66 /  50  10  20  30
F10   82  64  84  66 /  50  10  20  30
HHW   85  65  87  69 /  40  10  20  20

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I-40 IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY
RAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. NORTH
OF I-40 ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5AM AND 9AM IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX. BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND WINDS ALONG THE APEX OF THE LARGE SCALE BOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AREAS. THE APEX OF THE BOW LOOKS TO BE HEADED TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD TAKE IT POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHERN PITTSBURG
COUNTY AND INTO CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES AFTER 5AM.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC FRIDAY
AREA 1...PITTSBURG...CHOCTAW...PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...95
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...60

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE AREA.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 10AM THIS MORNING...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM THE COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE AREA OF STORMS. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKOGEE TO
FAYETTEVILLE MAY SEE WINDS TO 70 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE COMPLEX
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6AM AND 10AM IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX. BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND WINDS ALONG THE APEX OF THE LARGE SCALE BOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AREAS. THE APEX OF THE BOW LOOKS TO BE HEADED ACROSS
HASKELL...SEQUOYAH...LATIMER...LE FLORE...SEBASTIAN...CRAWFORD...
ADAIR...MADISON...FRANKLIN AND WASHINGTON ARKANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE COMPLEX PASSES...ITS OUTFLOW ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD IN THE PLAINS SHOULD PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY
AREA 1...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKOGEE TO HUNTSVILLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING...WITH FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 AM    OKEMAH                    OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/18/01   OKFUSKEE                        NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS
                                           DOWNED. REPORTED BY
                                           OKFUSKEE COUNTY SO.

0513 AM    HENRYETTA                 OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/18/01   OKMULGEE                        BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF
                                           INTO POWER LINES.
                                           REPORTED BY HENRYETTA CD.

0531 AM    EUFAULA                   OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/18/01   MCINTOSH                        REPORTED BY MCINTOSH EOC

0535 AM    8 W ANTLERS               OK    .88 INCH HAIL
05/18/01   PUSHMATAHA                      REPORTEGD BY ANTLERS PD