Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

HELD OFF ON ISSUING UPDATED PACKAGE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED TO
INCLUDE SVR WATCH FOR FAR WRN ZONES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

UPDATED ZONES SENT 1555-1600Z.

FCSTID = 23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0741 AM    DRUMRIGHT                 OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/29/01   CREEK                           REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

...UPDATED FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST...APPROACHING PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 12 PM.  WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BRISTOW
TO OKMULGEE TO MCALESTER LINE.

PLEASE SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 600 AM FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

A FULLY UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1
PM.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE
HAIL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE.  THESE STORMS WILL FORM
INTO SEVERAL COMPLEXES AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS ARE ACTIVATED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN AGAIN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 3 AM.

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3 PM.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE.  A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO KANSAS
THIS EVENING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OR TWO WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 AM AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD 6 AM.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS IN THE AREA...LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY

THREAT AREA 1...EASTERN OKLAHOMA GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

THREAT AREA 2...WEST OF JAY TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...60
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

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