Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST
CONCERNS.

ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED WITH LAPS SHOWING CAPES IN THE 2500-3500 RANGE
OVER EASTERN KS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND SHIFTING EAST. FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS OUT
FOR MUCH OF CWA. HAVE ALSO ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN HALF OF
CWA GENERALLY EAST OF A SENECA TO WESTMORELAND TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE
AS AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST QUAD OF UPPER LOW WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE PER MODELS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME AREA GETTING UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS ACTUALLY
MOVE PRECIPITATION ON OUT FAIRLY FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN
LIKELY TO BE OVER BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM DROPS RAPIDLY
INTO WESTERN KS ON SATURDAY AND MODELS INDICATING PRECIPITATION
TO SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE HAVE
GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS...WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KS DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
CWA AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS.

TEMPWISE...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BOTH ETA/FWC MOS INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S EAST CENTRAL TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH CENTRAL.
H9HOWEVER...BELIEVE WILL STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS...AND WITH
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE AREA PER ETA/AVN...DECIDED TO GO
WITH AROUND 70 NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S EAST
CENTRAL. WITH ALL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...THE
COOLER FAN/MAV NUMBERS LOOKED BETTER.

.TOP...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG
       AND EAST OF A SENECA TO WESTMORELAND TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE.

38

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PART OF
NORTH CENTRAL...AND MOST OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MOST LIKELY IN A CORRIDOR
FROM MARYSVILLE TO ABILENE.  SOME SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO FORM A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

VERY HEAVY RAINS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHEAST OF A
HOLTON TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN KANSAS...TO PRODUCE
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.  THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT...TAKING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH IT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

38