Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUING TO FEED ON STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION IN 40 TO 50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST TO ITS EAST.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN WEAKEN.

MODELS NOT TOO FAR APART IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS...BUT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
COULD PLAY A PART ON LOCATION OF REGENERATION LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER
TRUE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW AN ETA SOLUTION ON TIMING/
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING...DONT THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH TO FIRE STORMS AS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  ETA CAPE VALUES AOA 3000J/KG AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND WILL INCLUDE IN
ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  SOME CONCERN
FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PARALLEL FRONT LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...AND EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN TO PRECLUDE
A FLOOD WATCH RIGHT NOW.  HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED IN ZONES NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE.

WITH SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF FRONT ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WILL MOVE MOST OF THE RAIN OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER
UPPER LOW/VORT MAX STILL OUT WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN
UNDER UPPER COLD POOL.

TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW TREND OF GOING FORECAST...WHICH MATCH MORE
CLOSELY THE FWC FOR TODAYS HIGHS...THEN CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY.

.TOP...NONE

62

KSZ008-009-020-034-071045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
443 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

  WASHINGTON            CLOUD                 REPUBLIC
  OTTAWA
.

SOME CITIES NO LONGER IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712...

  CONCORDIA

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL...
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM OVER PARTS
OF NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS...MOST LIKELY IN A CORRIDOR FROM MARYSVILLE
TO ABILENE.  SOME SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER
EASTERN KANSAS...TO PRODUCE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE EVENING...TAKING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH IT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.