Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER LOUISIANA AND EXTREME EAST TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ONE STORM DEVELOPED NEAR NATCHITOCHES AND
ANOTHER WEST OF SHREVEPORT. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WEST OF TEXARKANA TO JUST WEST OF SHREVEPORT INTO EAST TEXAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH PVA AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND WINDS IF A LINE CAN DEVELOP AS
THE FRONT CROSSES EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. AFTER
TONIGHTS RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONT DEVELOPS TO THE THE
NORTHWEST AS MODELS BRING UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN MOVE TO THE GULF COAST AND MAY WASH OUT BY SATURDAY. PUT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THURSDAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MRF SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
AND A FRONT SETS UP JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

09

PRELIMS...

SHV 053/078 052/082 056 3000
MLU 055/076 053/078 054 5000
TXK 049/077 050/080 055 2000
TYR 051/079 051/083 057 0000
LFK 052/080 050/083 056 3000

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211635-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AND SHOULD INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA AS HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
...MOIST AIRMASS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
TEXAS LAKES AREA...AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...HOWEVER...A TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR.

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN NETWORKS...STORM SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON.