Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA AT MID
MORNING WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND THE
PAST TWO HOURS. MORNING SOUNDING AT SHV SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AT 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX OF -7. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD
BE MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME EAST TEXAS FROM NEAR
LUFKIN EAST. LATEST RUC SHOWS THE FRONT TO A MONROE...TO MANY
LOUISIANA...TO LIVINGSTON TEXAS LINE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA WHICH IS
ALREADY IN NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST AND
KEEP HIGH CHANCES SOUTHEAST WITH RISK OF SEVERE SOUTHEAST OF FRONT.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A THREAT BUT FRONT IS MOVING FAST ENOUGH RIGHT
NOW THAT SHOULD NOT NEEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL KEEP...RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES...IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. COOL TONIGHT WITH GREAT WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

09

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211635-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AND SHOULD INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA AS HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
...MOIST AIRMASS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
TEXAS LAKES AREA...AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...HOWEVER...A TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR.

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN NETWORKS...STORM SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON.