Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CST THU FEB 8 2001

COLD FRONT JUST EDGING NEAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA ATTM. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN NOSE OF 85H JET AND 60 DEG SFC
DEWPOINT AXIS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF AROUND AN INCH NOTED IN TRAINING BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO NEVADA. EXPECT SFC WAVE TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS THIS EVENING TEMPORARILY HOLDING
UP THE FRONT BEFORE IT KICKS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN KS AND OK ATTM AND SEE NO REASON TO DROP
FFA BASED ON PRESENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL QPF. 18Z MESO ETA
CONTINUES TO SHOW 50 TO 60KT JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. BRIEF SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...SFC BASED LI OF 0 TO -3 AND CAPE OF OVER
1000 J/KG.

LEANED TOWARD FASTER ETA VERSUS AVN...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
FAIRLY MINOR IN FIRST 24 HOURS. ETA HAS MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS. AS SFC LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR
WILL FINALLY RUSH INTO THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER
TO WINTRY MIX AND SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN COUNTIES. NOT CONSIDERING A WINTER ADVISORY ATTM...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE CHANGEOVER
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THEN WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DWINDLING QUICKLY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

FOR LATER PERIODS...COLD AIR AND SFC HIGH BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SFC FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND LIMITS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AVN CUTS OFF LOW
ALONG WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RESULTING MIDLEVEL WEST FLOW
AND FASTED MOVING AND HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES.

.SGF...
MO...FFA FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG AND
WEST OF A OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE FOR TONIGHT.
KS...FFA FOR CHEROKEE...BOURBON...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST THU FEB 8 2001

...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN
MISSOURI STATE LINE FROM OSCEOLA...NEVADA...AND FORT SCOTT SOUTH TO
JOPLIN. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
IS STALLED OVER THE REGION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. TWO
TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN MISSOURI
STATE LINE INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FORT SCOTT...NEVADA...JOPLIN...
AND PINEVILLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MINIMAL. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR TURN TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.

DSA