Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 AND 466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 EDT.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVG EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. KFCX 88D LOOP INDICATED THAT AXIS OF
PCP ATTM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVG PIVOTING NORTH INTO CWA. WATER VAPOR/IR SHOWING WELL
DEFINE COMMA VORT LIFTING NWD ACROSS E TN/SW NC. DECIDED TO POST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR NW NC UP THRU FOOTHILL
GROUPING.(SEE FFA). AVN SOLUTION SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS RGN OVERNIGHT. TODAY'S MODELS CONTINUE TO CUT
OFF THE UPPER SYSTEM BY SUN. THIS SUPPORTS SLOWING FNT E PUSH AND
EVENTUALLY STALLING IT ALONG THE CST. SEVERAL WAVES WILL DEVELOP AND
ROLL UP THE FRONT. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...I HAVE ELECTED TO ADD
CHC OF PCPN TO WED UNDER COLD POOL. A FEW OTHER CHANGES REFER TO
ZONES FOR DETAILS. NEXT SET OF ZONES WILL BE OUT AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE...ARD 400 PM.

FCSTID = 07
PRELIM NUMBERS
ROA   65  80  59  80 /  80  50  20  40
LYH   65  79  59  82 /  60  50  20  40
DAN   67  81  63  82 /  60  50  20  40
BLF   60  73  53  75 /  90  40  20  40
LWB   57  72  52  74 /  90  40  20  40
BCB   60  75  55  76 /  90  40  20  40
TNB   59  73  56  75 /  90  40  20  40

.RNK...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT UNTIL 800 AM EDT SATURTDAY MORNING.. FOR
NCZ001-002-018-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035.
.WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-221815-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1125 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA W,EATHER RADIO FOR FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES...AND FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

RMG

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-221830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AT 1 PM...THE STORMS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WATAUGA COUNTY NEAR
BOONE...CENTRAL ASHE COUNTY JUST NORTH OF JEFFERSON...AND IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NEAR SPARTA. SINCE RAIN IS FALLING OVEPR
PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND...PONDING WATER IS LIKELY OVER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

JW

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>019-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-222100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA UNTIL 7:00 PM THIS EVENING.

RMG