Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

LINE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MADE IT INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BEFORE DISPTG. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES OF
2000 J/KG IN THE MTNS AND 2500+ IN THE PIEDMONT. TSRA SHOULD FIRE UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT LINE AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TODAY THERE IS ALSO SOME SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH THE SLOW MOVG UPPER TROF/SFC FNT APPCHG FROM THE WEST.
HODOGRAPHS/WINDFIELDS WOULD INDICATE MULTICELL STORMS TODAY. NOT
MUCH SHEAR...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS
LATE THIS AFT AND CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THERE IS A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. FZG LVLS/WBZ HAVE RISEN A BIT- BUT THE
LARGER STORMS WITH VILS IN THE 60S COULD HAVE LARGE HAIL. THE OTHER
CONSIDERATION FOR TODAY IS THE THREAT OF TRAINING AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWS ARE 1.2 AT RNK AND 1.4 AT GSO WHICH ARE ABOUT 120 PCT
OF NORMAL. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AREAS...WE HAVE NOT HAD MUCH RAINFALL
FOR AWHILE & FFG IS STILL 2 IN/HR AND 3 IN OR MORE FOR 3 HRS. I
THINK THE BEST CHC FOR A LARGE...ORGANIZED AREA OF TSRA FOR A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LATER THIS EVE OR EVEN OVERNITE ASSOC WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE OVER WRN MS/NRN LA MOVG NEWD...SIMILAR
TO THE 06Z AVN.

FOR THE ZONE UPDATE...I PLAN TO BREAK THE 2 GROUP SPLIT UP SOME FROM
WEST TO EAST TO TIMEH THE CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE AND ADJUST MAX
TEMPS. CURRENT LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES STILL LOOK GOOD.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
836 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 PM    2W CHECK                  VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/21/01   FLOYD                          TREES BLOCKING RTE 686
                                          REPORTED BY VDOT.

0145 PM    3SW CHECK                 VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/r21/01   FLOYD                          TREES BLOCKING RTE 682
                                          REPORTED BY VDOT.

JW

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-221815-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1125 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA W,EATHER RADIO FOR FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES...AND FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

RMG

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-221830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AT 1 PM...THE STORMS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WATAUGA COUNTY NEAR
BOONE...CENTRAL ASHE COUNTY JUST NORTH OF JEFFERSON...AND IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NEAR SPARTA. SINCE RAIN IS FALLING OVEPR
PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND...PONDING WATER IS LIKELY OVER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

JW