Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
245 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

KFCX WSR-88D INDICATED SCT CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS)
DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ESP ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
CWA. SFC LOW NEAR PAH CLEARLY DEFINED ON AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THANKS FOR THE RAPID SCAN. SHORTWAVE WILL PROPEL SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APCHG
85H LOW OVER TN. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT FOR HAIL...WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF FRONT IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. WITH RECENT RAINS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SE
WV AND WESTERN VA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PROGRESS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING ECHOES. BEST CAPES
(2000 PLUS ) AND LIS ( MINUS 5) PROGD TO BE ACRS SOUTHSIDE. ETA AND
NGM ARE SHOWING A SLOWER SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE VORT INIT
OVR WRN TN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS IT MOVES ACRS THE SERN U.S.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS VORT...THE ETA IS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND THE NGM SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
NORTH FROM THEIR PREV RUN. I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON
SUNDAY. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE DRAPTED ACRS REGION AND EAST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CLOSED LOW PROGD TO DEVELOP OVER OHIO VALLEY. UNABLE TO
REVIEW ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WILL NOT MAKE TO MANY CHANGES.
ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 400 PM. HAVE A GOOD EVENING.

FCSTID = 7
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS
ROA   60  72  55  75 /  50  40  20  10
LYH   60  72  55  75 /  50  40  20  10
DAN   62  77  60  78 /  60  50  30  10
BLF   57  70  55  72 /  60  50  30  10
LWB   53  70  52  72 /  60  40  20  10
BCB   57  70  55  72 /  60  50  30  10
TNB   57  71  55  70 /  60  50  30  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WVr...NONE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
437 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....x

0432 PM    ALTAVISTA                 VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/19/01   CAMPBELL                       REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>018-022-023-032>034-043>045-058-059-WVZ042-
044-200045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG LINE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALSO STRONG STORMS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

YOU SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING. MONITOR YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF TRAVELING...WATCH FOR
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES jIN THE STRONGER STORMS...PONDED WATER ON
THE ROADS...AND URBAN STREET FLOODING.