Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
245 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

KFCX WSR-88D INDICATED SCT CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS)
DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ESP ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
CWA. SFC LOW NEAR PAH CLEARLY DEFINED ON AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THANKS FOR THE RAPID SCAN. SHORTWAVE WILL PROPEL SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE APCHG
85H LOW OVER TN. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT FOR HAIL...WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF FRONT IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. WITH RECENT RAINS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SE
WV AND WESTERN VA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PROGRESS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING ECHOES. BEST CAPES
(2000 PLUS ) AND LIS ( MINUS 5) PROGD TO BE ACRS SOUTHSIDE. ETA AND
NGM ARE SHOWING A SLOWER SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE VORT INIT
OVR WRN TN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS IT MOVES ACRS THE SERN U.S.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS VORT...THE ETA IS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND THE NGM SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
NORTH FROM THEIR PREV RUN. I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON
SUNDAY. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STILL BE DRAPTED ACRS REGION AND EAST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CLOSED LOW PROGD TO DEVELOP OVER OHIO VALLEY. UNABLE TO
REVIEW ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WILL NOT MAKE TO MANY CHANGES.
ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 400 PM. HAVE A GOOD EVENING.

FCSTID = 7
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS
ROA   60  72  55  75 /  50  40  20  10
LYH   60  72  55  75 /  50  40  20  10
DAN   62  77  60  78 /  60  50  30  10
BLF   57  70  55  72 /  60  50  30  10
LWB   53  70  52  72 /  60  40  20  10
BCB   57  70  55  72 /  60  50  30  10
TNB   57  71  55  70 /  60  50  30  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WVr...NONE.

07

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-192200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1128 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THE WESTERN PORTION MAY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE AID OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE PAST WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING IN SPOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
437 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....x

0432 PM    ALTAVISTA                 VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/19/01   CAMPBELL                       REPORTED BY SPOTTERS