Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

LTL CONVECTION TO REPORT AS OF THE EARLY PM HOURS...BUT ALL MODEL
AND EARLY AM MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATIONS ARE THAT PM SUN WL CREATE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATE DAY ENVIRONMENT FOR UPPER LOW TO TOUCH OFF
AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. MOVEMENT OF -13C TO -14C H5 COLD POOL
OVERHEAD WL STEEPEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES TOO...AND AS VORT ENERGY
PINWHEELS AROUND LOW SHOULD SEE UVM FIELD FURTHER EHANCED. SOME
STORM INTRO MAY BE PROPAGATING KIND FROM MOST FAVORABLE ZONE JUST TO
OUR EAST...BUT OTHER THAN MONITOR OF LATEST RADAR DATA WL NOT TRY TO
PICK-CHOOSE AND INSTEAD WL LIKELY PAINT ONE SMALL POP FOR MOST AREA.
STRONGER STORMS COULD WELL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SVR
LIMITS FOR HAIL GIVEN WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K AND RELATIVELY LOW
TROP...REFLECTED IN LATEST DY1. EXPECT LTL STORM MOVEMENT W/WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ...BUT THIS COULD ENHANCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY HIGH PWS APPROACHING 1.25.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SPEED OF UPPER LOWS WWARD DRIFT
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE/RESULANT QPF...NET RESULT FOR ZFP WL MEAN
CONTINUATION OF LARGELY DIURNAL POPS TIL LOW WASHES OUT LATE IN
EXTENDED. HOWEVER AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LINGERING POPS GIVEN AMPLE MEAN RH AND COLD POOL
OVERHEAD...AND WL LIKELY LOWER BUT HANG ON TO A VERY SMALL POP EVEN
INTO TONIGHT PTNS OF FCST...AT LEAST 1ST COUPLE OF NIGHTS OF
PACKAGE. THIS IS FAIRLY REPRESENTED IN GOING PACKAGE WITH EMPHASIS
ON EVENING CHC AND THUS ANTICIPATE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MRF CONTINUES TREND OF WASHING OUT LOW TO THE SW BY SUN AS
BROAD UPPR RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF CNTL U.S. THIS SHOULD BEGIN DRY
WX FCST THAT WL LAST THRU EARLY NEXT WK AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SE OUT OF CANADA AND PROVIDES PAH FA WITH DRY TRAJECTORIES AND
SEASONALLY PLEASANT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

GUIDANCE NOS CONTINUE THEIR SYNCHRONIZATION SAVE FOR WED HIGHS OF
FAN WHICH APPEAR WAY TOO WARM GIVEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS RECORDINGS. WL
THEREFORE TAKE FWC/MAV BLEND TRENDING TOWARD COOLER SIDE OF NOS TIL
UPR LOW IS OUT OF PICTURE.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY