Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

LTL CONVECTION TO REPORT AS OF THE EARLY PM HOURS...BUT ALL MODEL
AND EARLY AM MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATIONS ARE THAT PM SUN WL CREATE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATE DAY ENVIRONMENT FOR UPPER LOW TO TOUCH OFF
AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. MOVEMENT OF -13C TO -14C H5 COLD POOL
OVERHEAD WL STEEPEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES TOO...AND AS VORT ENERGY
PINWHEELS AROUND LOW SHOULD SEE UVM FIELD FURTHER EHANCED. SOME
STORM INTRO MAY BE PROPAGATING KIND FROM MOST FAVORABLE ZONE JUST TO
OUR EAST...BUT OTHER THAN MONITOR OF LATEST RADAR DATA WL NOT TRY TO
PICK-CHOOSE AND INSTEAD WL LIKELY PAINT ONE SMALL POP FOR MOST AREA.
STRONGER STORMS COULD WELL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SVR
LIMITS FOR HAIL GIVEN WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K AND RELATIVELY LOW
TROP...REFLECTED IN LATEST DY1. EXPECT LTL STORM MOVEMENT W/WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ...BUT THIS COULD ENHANCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY HIGH PWS APPROACHING 1.25.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SPEED OF UPPER LOWS WWARD DRIFT
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE/RESULANT QPF...NET RESULT FOR ZFP WL MEAN
CONTINUATION OF LARGELY DIURNAL POPS TIL LOW WASHES OUT LATE IN
EXTENDED. HOWEVER AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LINGERING POPS GIVEN AMPLE MEAN RH AND COLD POOL
OVERHEAD...AND WL LIKELY LOWER BUT HANG ON TO A VERY SMALL POP EVEN
INTO TONIGHT PTNS OF FCST...AT LEAST 1ST COUPLE OF NIGHTS OF
PACKAGE. THIS IS FAIRLY REPRESENTED IN GOING PACKAGE WITH EMPHASIS
ON EVENING CHC AND THUS ANTICIPATE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MRF CONTINUES TREND OF WASHING OUT LOW TO THE SW BY SUN AS
BROAD UPPR RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF CNTL U.S. THIS SHOULD BEGIN DRY
WX FCST THAT WL LAST THRU EARLY NEXT WK AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SE OUT OF CANADA AND PROVIDES PAH FA WITH DRY TRAJECTORIES AND
SEASONALLY PLEASANT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

GUIDANCE NOS CONTINUE THEIR SYNCHRONIZATION SAVE FOR WED HIGHS OF
FAN WHICH APPEAR WAY TOO WARM GIVEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS RECORDINGS. WL
THEREFORE TAKE FWC/MAV BLEND TRENDING TOWARD COOLER SIDE OF NOS TIL
UPR LOW IS OUT OF PICTURE.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261915-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH 600
AM WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT DOES
SO...IT WILL MOVE A POCKET OF COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL STEEPEN UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
OCCUR JUST AS SURFACE AND LOW LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE HEATED BY THE
AFTERNOON SUN...ALLOWING FOR A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE NET RESULT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ENERGY PINWHEELING
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD THEN BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS IF THEY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC...AND
COULD SHIFT DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN A GIVEN
AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE THAN ONE STORM WERE2 TO DEVELOP AND DROP
REPEAT RAINS OVER THE SAME AREA.

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

HUMPHREY