Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

POP CHANCES/TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...AS WELL LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
NCEP BACKUP TEST ADDING TO THE EXCITEMENT...WITH SUBSTITUTION OF
NAVY NOGAPS/AFWA MM5/FSL RUC2 FOR REGULAR SUITE OF AVN/ETA/NGM
GUIDANCE. MRF...BOTH 00Z RUN AND ENSEMBLE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION
FROM CLOSED LOW ACRS TN/KY ON MONDAY...NOW SHOWING RIDGE CENTER NOW
IN ITS PLACE. I AM NOT CERTAIN WHAT TO BELIEVE REGARDING POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE PTTN NOW IN 00Z RUN OF THE
MRF.

06Z ETA AND 12Z MM5 RUN SUGGESTED BEST COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION
WOULD BE ACRS SWRN IN AND NWRN KY...HOWEVER..MAIN CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE SWD OF OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER TO THE N. SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT 19Z
STRETCHED FROM MCLEANSBORO AND VIENNA ILLINOIS...SW TOWARD DEXTER MO.
ANTICIPATE THAT REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE S OF THIS
LINE AROUND DUSK...SO WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME MENTION IN CURRENT ZONE
PACKAGE. MOST OF THE SIGNFICANT CONVECTION IN WRN KY WAS NOTED ALONG
ON LEADING EDGE OF NARROW THETA-E RIDGE FROM LA AND AR INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL. NWRN PTN OF AMS IS SOMEWHAT CAPPED...SO WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AS PER CURRENT
FORECAST.

WILL STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT
WILL TAPER MENTION TO MORNING HOURS FOR KY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN BOLDLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
WILL SHAVE BACK MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH SUN. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A
MISTAKE...WILL DROP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY. I WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF MRF/AVN FOLLOWING NCEP BACKUP
TEST.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 600 AM
WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S.  HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE NO OBVIOUS
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 3AM THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.  THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS.  AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE VERY WEAK.  THEREFORE...INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.

ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO 15
MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE AREA.

DRS