Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

RADAR COMPOSITE/IR AND MSAS SHOW CONVECTION LINED UP ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN ACROSS IOWA INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN KANSAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER OUR
CWFA...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEING BLOWN SOUTHEAST FROM CONVECTION
TOWARD THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. MAY BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST A BIT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO NOTED. THIS IS VERIFIED IN 3.9M IMAGERY
WHERE SOME 7-9K FT CLOUDS WERE NOTED AS CLOSE AS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID TROP RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING...WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL ABOUT 2 DEGREES.
IN THE MEANTIME...850-700MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO...LIS ARE PROGGED TO BE -4 TO -6...WITH
TOTAL TOTAL VALUES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THUS...HAVE ADDED TO
THE ZONES...THOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED GOING PARTLY CLOUDY. POPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 PERCENT.

FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT AT 00Z SHOULD BE FROM
ROUGHLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND BY 12Z CUTTING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTH IN CASE THERE IS ANYTHING IN THE EVENING...AND AGAIN
LATE...AND GO WITH 30 POPS NORTH BROAD BRUSH. SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

PREVIOUS THINKING STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BECOME HIGHEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST BAROCLINICITY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SEEN JUST BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT FROM 1000-850MB...COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW. UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS NORTH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE AND LOW TROPOSPHERIC FORCING
WILL BE BEST.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOLLOWED. FOR WEDNESDAY...FAVORED SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAV NUMBERS. MAV MUCH COOLER THAN GOING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. WENT
A LITTLE CLOSER TO FAN NUMBERS...TO AVOID ANY LARGE CHANGES.

.PAH...NONE.

NOLES

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 600 AM
WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S.  HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE NO OBVIOUS
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 3AM THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.  THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS.  AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE VERY WEAK.  THEREFORE...INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.

ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO 15
MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE AREA.

DRS