Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

MIDDAY MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION FM NE AR WORKING ITS
WAY INTO SEMO. KPAH/KLZK MOSAIC AND IR PICS SHOW HIEST REFLECTIVITIES
AND COLDEST TOPS RESP...IN VCNTY OF WEAK VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF
DEEP SW FLOW. SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCS SE FM PARENT LOW IN
PLAINS...AND SEPARATES DEEPEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SOUTH AND
WEST FM STILL DRY/STABLE LOWER TROP BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PAH FA.

MORNING BRIEFING HINTED AT OBSERVED TREND/POSSIBLE PREFERENCE FOR
TAD SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH DEVELOPING/APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW/FRONT. MIDDAY INDICATIONS CONT TO SUPPORT THIS REASONING WITH
SURFACE OBS SUPPORTING A LOW CENTERED IN SCNTL NE/NCNTL KS BORDER
AREA...A SHAVE WEST OF SLOWEST MODEL (ETA) SOLUTION. AND ETA HAS
TRENDED SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...AT LEAST SINCE 26/1200Z RUNS. WL
THEREFORE TREND FCST TO SLOW SIDE WITH ETA OR EVEN SLOER BIAS.

60F PLUS TDS NOW INTO SRN AR...SHOULD NOT ARRIVE INTO PAH FA TIL AFT
27/00Z. WITH INSTABILITY AXIS CONFINED TO MOIST AXIS...ANTICIPATE
SWODY1 THREAT PRIMARILY TO BE AN OVERNIGHT ONE...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION WL REMAIN A THREAT THRU EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER...WL BE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH ETA
SUGGESTS WL BE ENTERING WRN REACHES OF FA AROUND MIDNIGHT...OH RIVER
AROUND 12Z TUE...DEPARTING TO EAST OF FA BY 18Z TUE. WITH TIMING OF
BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FM AROUND 03Z-09Z...BELIEVE
HIEST SVR THREAT THEN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS FRONT TAPS INTO IT
(STILL BASICALLY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT).

AFTER A LINGERING PCPN CHC TUE...FRONT WL STALL AS 2NDARY UPR VORTEX
TAKES OVER...RESULTING IN BACKING UPR FLOW AND REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
SWLYS INTO PAH FA. THIS WL RETURN DEEP AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HELP
INITIATE ANOTHER CHC PCPN TUE NIGHT-WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
WARM LAYER FM AROUND H9-H7...SUGGESTING DIMINISHING SNOW THREAT.
ONLY NW CORRIDOR GRID POINTS MIGHT SEE ENOUGH SUSTENANCE OF SHALLOW
COLD POOL NEAR SURFACE TO SUPPORT PERHAPS A MIXED PCPN TYPE...AND
EVEN THIS IS QUESTIONABLE AS NEW ETA IS NOW KEEPING 1300M LINE TO
OUR NW. WL THEREFORE ELIMINATE FOCUS ON SNOW AND DOWNPLAY EVEN MIXED
SCENARIO...PREFERRING A LOW CHC WAIT/SEE APPROACH FOR BOTH GIVEN
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREAT VARIATIONS AFTER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
PRIMARY THEME OF FOLLOWING THE SLOWER...AND THUS WARMER MODEL
SOLTIONS...WL TREND FCST NOS TOWARD THE APPLICABLE REGIME GIVEN THIS
SLOW/WARM SOLUTION PRESUMPTION. THIS BASICALLY ELIMINATES MAV AND
BECOMES A LARGELY COMPRISING PLAY BETWEEN THE FWC/FAN NOS.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY

KYZ012-016-017-019>022-270800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 832 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 400 AM CST...

THE TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...

TRIGG...TODD...CHRISTIAN...CALLOWAY...HOPKINS...MUHLENBURG...
MCLEAN...DAVIESS

AT 1130 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY
FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAD WORKED ITS
WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...PROMPTED THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE ISSUED. THE
THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES WILL END EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

PERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE
WEATHER SITUATION THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
LOCAL RADIO AND TV...AND CABLE TV FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

MEFFERT