Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING
TROPICAL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST IR AND
VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION ON ERN FLANK OF TROPICAL
CIRCULATION...AND PRIMARILY EAST (OR SE) OF PAH FA. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW OVER HI PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. WL MONITOR
THRU PRESS TIME BUT ANTICIPATE MINIMAL DIURNAL POP INTO EVENING
W/SHIFTING FOCUS TO LATE NIGHT-FRI POP AS FRONT MOVES INTO PICTURE.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION OF
QPF...GENERAL TREND FOR FRONT TO COME INTO FA FRI IS MAINTAINED THRU
EACH MODEL SOLUTION. WL THEREFORE RESPOND WITH SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION FOR HIGH CHC POPS FRI...PERHAPS LIKELY. ALSO...NOW ALL
MODELS ARE SYNCHRONIZING THEIR SOLUTIONS IN SUGGESTING FRONT WL
STALL AND LINGER BACK THRU FA IN SE-NW FASHION. WL THEREFORE FOLLOW
TREND SET UP WITH YDAY PACKAGE AND ELIMINATE POPS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
NE...BUT LINGER THRU SUN SW.

GUIDANCE IS REAL CLOSE REGARDLESS OF MODEL AND HAS REASONABLE TREND
ALREADY GOING IN PACKAGE...SO EXPECT JUST MINOR TWEEKING.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-091830-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WAS BEGINNING
TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY...BUT IT WAS STILL LINGERING A PLENTIFUL SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE. AS THE AFTERNOON KEEPS HEATING UP...THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY FUELED BY AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PROVIDING THE NEEDED
MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SUN SETS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE VARIABLE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY EAST MOVEMENT AT 15 MPH OR
LESS.

THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAKES THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WANT
TO MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS SHOULD THEIR ACTIVATION BE REQUESTED.

DH