Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING
TROPICAL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST IR AND
VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION ON ERN FLANK OF TROPICAL
CIRCULATION...AND PRIMARILY EAST (OR SE) OF PAH FA. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW OVER HI PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. WL MONITOR
THRU PRESS TIME BUT ANTICIPATE MINIMAL DIURNAL POP INTO EVENING
W/SHIFTING FOCUS TO LATE NIGHT-FRI POP AS FRONT MOVES INTO PICTURE.

WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION OF
QPF...GENERAL TREND FOR FRONT TO COME INTO FA FRI IS MAINTAINED THRU
EACH MODEL SOLUTION. WL THEREFORE RESPOND WITH SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION FOR HIGH CHC POPS FRI...PERHAPS LIKELY. ALSO...NOW ALL
MODELS ARE SYNCHRONIZING THEIR SOLUTIONS IN SUGGESTING FRONT WL
STALL AND LINGER BACK THRU FA IN SE-NW FASHION. WL THEREFORE FOLLOW
TREND SET UP WITH YDAY PACKAGE AND ELIMINATE POPS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
NE...BUT LINGER THRU SUN SW.

GUIDANCE IS REAL CLOSE REGARDLESS OF MODEL AND HAS REASONABLE TREND
ALREADY GOING IN PACKAGE...SO EXPECT JUST MINOR TWEEKING.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-091830-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WAS BEGINNING
TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY...BUT IT WAS STILL LINGERING A PLENTIFUL SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE. AS THE AFTERNOON KEEPS HEATING UP...THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY FUELED BY AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PROVIDING THE NEEDED
MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SUN SETS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE VARIABLE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD HAVE A MAINLY EAST MOVEMENT AT 15 MPH OR
LESS.

THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAKES THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH
TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WANT
TO MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS SHOULD THEIR ACTIVATION BE REQUESTED.

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 PM    12NW POPLAR BLUFF         MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/09/01   BUTLER                         NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE
                                          HAIL REPORTED BY EOC.

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-092200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
354 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTERS...
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND WIND...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH AN HOUR...MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 350 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN PADUCAH INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER RIPLEY AND WAYNE COUNTY
MISSOURI...STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OF DONIPHAN...ONWARD TO
WILLIAMSVILLE AND GREENVILLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS...STRETCHED ALONG
THE WESTERN CARTER COUNTY BORDER WEST OF FREMONT...AND ALONG
THE PERRY COUNTY BORDER...NORTHWEST OF PERRYVILLE MISSOURI.

ALL OF THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.

AN OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHERE OUTFLOW FROM SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGE...STORMS WILL QUICKLY RISE AND MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE.

PERSONS TRAVELING IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

INZ086-KYZ018-021-092300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
456 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AROUND THE EVANSVILLE INDIANA METRO AND
OVER MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN WEST KENTUCKY...

AT 450 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE INDIANA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND NORTH OF
GRAHAM IN MUHLENBERG COUNTY KENTUCKY.

IN THE EVANSVILLE METRO AREA...ONE HOUR RAINFALL...ESTIMATED BY
RADAR...RANGED BETWEEN ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. THE
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHED FROM WEST OF HIGHWAY 41...EXTENDING ABOUT
SIX MILES WEST ON ROUTE 62 AND 66...TOWARD KASSON IN VANDERBURGH
COUNTY.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE EVANSVILLE
METRO AREA...TOWARD HENDERSON KENTUCKY THROUGH 6 PM...SHOULD BE
WATCHFUL FOR WATER RISING RAPIDLY IN DITCHES AND STREAMS...AS WELL
AS PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN...ESTIMATED BY RADAR OVER TWO INCHES IN AN
HOUR...WAS INDICATED OVER THE PEABODY WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
NORTH OF GRAHAM KENTUCKY.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL NORTH OF THE WEST KENTUCKY PARKWAY...NEAR
GRAHAM KENTUCKY...SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR WATER ON ROADS AND OVER LOW-
LYING AREAS THROUGH 6 PM.