Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

WEAK FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND DRY LINE BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...
ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT BEING PROVIDED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT... A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST... AND INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES OVER THE AREA AT THE 850MB LEVEL. MEANWHILE... A STRONG
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. WILL HELP DRIVE A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT MAY ALSO
AID SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPS ON MONDAY... CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PERIODS FROM TUES THROUGH SAT LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME... WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 32
OKC   60  74  50  64 /  60  30  10  10
HBR   57  76  49  65 /  40  10  10  20
SPS   61  78  53  69 /  50  30  10  30
GAG   49  73  44  62 /  30  10  10  10
PNC   58  72  48  62 /  60  10  10  10
DUA   64  78  52  68 /  60  50  10  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-142000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUFFALO...TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO ATOKA. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

SKIES HAVE BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SKIES ARE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN THESE AREAS.  THERE ARE ALSO A NUMBER OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING A DRYLINE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE... A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS BORDER.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  BY THIS TIME... THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA... THE
THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.  THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.  HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE... PRIMARILY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  HAIL LARGER THAN
BASEBALL SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE MODERATE AND SLIGHT
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

SEE THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC /ACUS1 KMKC OR SWODY1/ FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...SPEG.