Severe Thunderstorm Warning 634, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ETA/KF SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN NORTH/SOUTH LINE ALONG
TROUGH AFTER 21Z.  AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PROGRESS...LOOKS
LIKE BETTER...STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BEGIN FARTHER SOUTH OF FA.
EVENTUALLY...SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT LEAST THIS WILL BE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS.  AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG AND CLOSE-OFF...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PART
OF FA.  WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A HOLDENVILLE TO MARIETTA LINE.  CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF FA BY AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS.  SIMILAR TO LAST SYSTEM...WITH COLD CORE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS...WILL LIKELY HAVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF FA DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

AFTER SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WILL LIKELY FOLLOW MORE OF MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANOTHER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OK BY TUESDAY MORNING SO COLDEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.  A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FCSTID = 6
OKC   51  63  47  68 /  70  30   0   0
HBR   47  64  47  72 /  40  10   0   0
SPS   45  62  45  72 /  60  30   0   0
GAG   37  64  38  67 /  30  10   0   0
PNC   48  62  46  68 /  60  10   0   0
DUA   54  67  48  68 / 100  40  10   0

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...OKZ032-041>43-046>48-050>052
TX...NONE.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0513 PM    9 WSW JOY                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   CLAY                           PUBLIC REPORT

0524 PM    5 S HENRIETTA             TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   CLAY                           AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    5 S CHICKASHA             OK   .88 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   GRADY                          AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0616 PM    2 N JOY                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   CLAY                           REPORTED BY AMATEUR
                                          RADIO OPERATOR

JF