Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ETA/KF SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN NORTH/SOUTH LINE ALONG
TROUGH AFTER 21Z.  AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PROGRESS...LOOKS
LIKE BETTER...STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BEGIN FARTHER SOUTH OF FA.
EVENTUALLY...SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT LEAST THIS WILL BE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS.  AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG AND CLOSE-OFF...POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PART
OF FA.  WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A HOLDENVILLE TO MARIETTA LINE.  CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF FA BY AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS.  SIMILAR TO LAST SYSTEM...WITH COLD CORE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS...WILL LIKELY HAVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF FA DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

AFTER SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WILL LIKELY FOLLOW MORE OF MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANOTHER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
PUSH ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OK BY TUESDAY MORNING SO COLDEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.  A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FCSTID = 6
OKC   51  63  47  68 /  70  30   0   0
HBR   47  64  47  72 /  40  10   0   0
SPS   45  62  45  72 /  60  30   0   0
GAG   37  64  38  67 /  30  10   0   0
PNC   48  62  46  68 /  60  10   0   0
DUA   54  67  48  68 / 100  40  10   0

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...OKZ032-041>43-046>48-050>052
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
QUANAH...TO WEATHERFORD...TO PERRY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A THREAT LATER THIS
EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL LIFT TO AREAS IN THE RISK AREA
STARTING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE STATE FROM THE WEST IT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE AND INITIATE STORMS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY HELP CONCENTRATE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE RED RIVER REGION BETWEEN QUANAH AND WICHITA
FALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SUPERCELLS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH RATHER LOW...IS NOT
ZERO.

AFTER DARK A SQUALL LINE WILL QUICKLY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF
A THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WR