Severe Thunderstorm Warning 617, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL AID IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS AS
HAVE ALREADY HAD ONE TORNADIC STORM IN BECKHAM COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS
IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO EVEN
UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OK.  AS MAIN WAVE OVER WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES EAST TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST PARTS OF
CWA.  THIS WILL BECOME MAIN FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN THIRD OF FORECAST
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL THEREFORE HAVE HIGHEST POPS
THERE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL
BE BEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FA.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

AFTER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FCSTID = 6
OKC   65  70  52  72 /  70  70  50  10
HBR   64  69  50  71 /  50  50  30  10
SPS   66  75  53  74 /  50  70  60  20
GAG   52  65  43  69 /  60  30  20  10
PNC   65  68  50  71 /  70  70  20  10
DUA   67  75  58  76 /  60  80  80  30

THANKS FOR THE BACKUP TUL...LBB...AND AMA

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS MODERATE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAKITA...TO
ANADARKO TO ALTUS TO HOLLIS. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK...WHICH INCLUDES THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND
HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EXPAND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRYLINE THAT WILL SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS BORDER.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...INCLUDING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGLY VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA.

MANNING/LINDLEY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    5 NW ERICK                OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   BECKHAM                        AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0239 PM    5 WNW SAYRE               OK   TORNADO
10/09/01   BECKHAM                        AMATEUR RADIO REPORT.

0247 PM    5 SE SWEETWATER           OK   TORNADO
10/09/01   BECKHAM                        SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORT.

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    1/2 E BERLIN              OK   TORNADO
10/09/01   ROGER MILLS                    BECKHAM CO EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGER REPORT.

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0323 PM    BERLIN                    OK   WIND DAMAGE. ROOF OFF MOBILE
10/09/01   ROGER MILLS                    HOME. BECKHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGER REPORT.

J