Severe Thunderstorm Warning 615, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

UPDATING ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WE ARE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES...WHERE MAIN COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXITING.

GOING TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

FCSTID = SP/TL

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS MODERATE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAKITA...TO
ANADARKO TO ALTUS TO HOLLIS. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK...WHICH INCLUDES THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND
HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EXPAND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRYLINE THAT WILL SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS BORDER.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...INCLUDING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGLY VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA.

MANNING/LINDLEY