Severe Thunderstorm Warning 484, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2001

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
AIDED BY THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN UPPER-AIR FEATURES.  THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT... AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA... INCLUDING OUR TEXAS
COUNTIES... TOMORROW MORNING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER TOMORROW... ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE WARM... IN ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWEST.  EVEN LOWER HIGHS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF EARLY NEXT
WEEK... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN ANOTHER ASCENT INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT-LAND.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES... WHICH HAVE BEEN NIL FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW... ARE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA.  MOISTURE... INSTABILITY... AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE ALL
PRESENT AND MAY EVEN HELP GENERATE SOME RATHER STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.  WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST A MAJOR STORM
OUTBREAK... HOWEVER.  AT THIS TIME... 30 TO 40 PERCENT IS ABOUT THE
HIGHEST WE CAN GO WITH POPS DUE TO POSITION UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
PROBABLE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... THEN THERE IS ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS.  AFTER THAT... THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD SQUASH ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   73  90  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
HBR   75  93  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
SPS   76  96  72  93 /  10  20  30  30
GAG   68  88  65  90 /  40  30  20  30
PNC   71  88  68  88 /  40  20  20  20
DUA   75  93  72  88 /  20  30  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-122000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO ENID TO
STILLWATER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MEANWHILE...EXTREME
HEAT WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER OKLAHOMA IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. A SURFACE FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH THE AREA...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND IT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WITH VERY
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY AND VERY HOT DAY. TODAY MAY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY YET IN MANY AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEARING OR
EXCEEDING 100...AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING 110. HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH 105 TO 110 OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BUT THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT BY
FRIDAY...WHEN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OR LESS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS AS EARLY AS
THIS EVENING.

JB/DA