Severe Thunderstorm Warning 483, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2001

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
AIDED BY THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN UPPER-AIR FEATURES.  THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT... AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA... INCLUDING OUR TEXAS
COUNTIES... TOMORROW MORNING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER TOMORROW... ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE WARM... IN ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWEST.  EVEN LOWER HIGHS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF EARLY NEXT
WEEK... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN ANOTHER ASCENT INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT-LAND.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES... WHICH HAVE BEEN NIL FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW... ARE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA.  MOISTURE... INSTABILITY... AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE ALL
PRESENT AND MAY EVEN HELP GENERATE SOME RATHER STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.  WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST A MAJOR STORM
OUTBREAK... HOWEVER.  AT THIS TIME... 30 TO 40 PERCENT IS ABOUT THE
HIGHEST WE CAN GO WITH POPS DUE TO POSITION UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
PROBABLE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... THEN THERE IS ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS.  AFTER THAT... THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD SQUASH ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   73  90  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
HBR   75  93  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
SPS   76  96  72  93 /  10  20  30  30
GAG   68  88  65  90 /  40  30  20  30
PNC   71  88  68  88 /  40  20  20  20
DUA   75  93  72  88 /  20  30  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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