Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS S OK AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA AS WELL. PARTS OF S OK AND N TX HAVE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTN WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL. WHERE SFC WINDS CAN BACK TO A MORE SE DIRECTION THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF SOME TORNADOES AS WELL ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SE OKLAHOMA
FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING.

ONE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RAINFALL
EVENTS HAVE BEEN NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE SO WILL
NOT ISSUE FFA. WITH STORMS MOVING SE AND COOLER...DRIER AIR PUSHING
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS STATE OVERNIGHT THINK THIS ROUND
SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG AS PREVIOUS EVENTS.

ONE OTHER WORRY IS FOR PORTIONS OF W OK WITH POSS MCS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH MODELS BRING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD
POSITION OF COMPLEX AS SHOWN WITH ETA MODEL WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
FORCING TO OUR WEST. COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
THEN SKIRT JUST S OF RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER THIS SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THU AND MUCH OF FRI
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
POPS CENTRAL. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL AGAIN BE IN LINE WITH THE ETA WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH SWRD MOVEMENT OF SFC FEATURE.

EXTENDED...
LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL CLEAR STATE EARLY SAT MORN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS ROCKIES BY LATE
ON SUN. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MON AND TUE AS FRONT
MEANDERS ACROSS STATE. WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR WED AS UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHEAST INTO PLAINS .

FCSTID = 30
OKC   62  78  58  84 /  40  10   0  20
HBR   60  80  57  86 /  30  10   0  20
SPS   63  80  60  88 /  40  20   0  10
GAG   55  78  55  86 /  20   0   0  30
PNC   57  76  56  84 /  20   0   0  30
DUA   67  81  61  85 /  60  20   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.U

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0653 PM    2S]E JOLLY                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   CLAY                           ALONG HWY 287 BY SPOTTER

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0801 PM    LAKE ARROWHEAD            TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   CLAY                           SPOTTER REPORT

0750 PM    LAKE ARROWHEAD            TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   CLAY                           SPOTTER REPORT

0800 PM    4 N SCOTLAND              TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   ARCHER                         SPOTTER REPORT

0805 PM    SCOTLAND                  TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   ARCHER                         SPOTTER REPORT

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    WINDTHORST                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/30/01   ARCHER                         SPOTTER REPORT

CW