Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL
CATCH UP AND SO WILL THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA MONDAY. HOWEVER,
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONT TO THIS AREA JUSTIFIES KEEPING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MONDAY.

SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SWEPT OUT OF MOST OF OK TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OK. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE OK SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW, POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THESE AREAS.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS A PROBLEM FORECAST AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NOT
FAR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE
RETURNING AS A COLD FRONT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DAY 6 AND 7 THIS
RUN, THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST DRY.

FCSTID = 9
OKC   55  74  51  76 /  60   0   0   0
HBR   52  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPS   57  75  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAG   45  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
PNC   53  74  48  75 /  40   0   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO
EL RENO... TO DUNCAN... TO WINDTHORST TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL... AND A
SOMEWHAT LESSER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

AT MIDDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW... A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE... AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE... AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND A
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR WEATHERFORD... SOUTHWARD TO
JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS.

THE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MIDDAY... AND SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY
MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...
AND THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT... WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
INCLUDING MULTICELL CLUSTERS... AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE... THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER... AND A LESSER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN AN AREA SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM CHANDLER... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO DUNCAN...
TO WAURIKA WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHEST. ALSO... SUPERCELL STORMS
TODAY MAY TREND TOWARD THE HIGH PRECIPITATION END OF THE SPECTRUM...
POSSIBLY MAKING SPOTTING DIFFICULT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND WEATHER SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 MILLER

`

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0228 PM    TUoTTLE                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/01   GRADY                          BY PD

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    7SW PERRY                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/01   NOBLE                          RPT BY PUBLIC

0247 PM    3 E COLE                  OK   .88 (INCH HAIL
05/06/01   MCCLAIN                        BY HAM RADIO

CW