Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

UPPER TROUGH AND VORT AXIS OVER MRX CWA THIS EVENING. SURFACE FRONT
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT ALONG WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING.
BRUNT OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EVENING HOURS
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POP NUMBERS. UPPER FEATURE MOVES E OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BECOMES SKETCHY AND LIKELY
HANGS ALONG E EDGE OF MRX. OVERALL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED THOU
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR A POST FRONTAL SW FLOW WHICH SEEMS
UNLIKELY. FAVOR THE DRIER ETA/MESO-ETA SOLUTION FOR SUN. WILL
CONCEDE CHC POPS TO MAV(LIKELY)/NGM WHICH DEPICT GOOD THETA-E
RIDGE...OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NE PART OF CWA. SO WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AFTERNOON SW PART. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR OLD
BOUNDARY(WARM FRONT) S PART OF CWA LATE. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS
THERE. NEXT FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH E TN MON NIGHT. FOR
MONDAY...WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF GOOD CHC SINCE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE N TO SW OF THE AREA AND ARRIVE LATE. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN ON TUE.

CHA ET 063/084 064/083 059 17912
TYS ET 062/082 063/082 058 17911
TRI ET 060/079 059/079 056 17931
OQT ET 062/082 062/083 057 17911=

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

SON

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-200700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
258 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NASHVILLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE
...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKS
EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST
TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OTHER AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINS EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF
INCH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL cRADIO...TELEVISION...OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.