Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

OBVIOUS FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE 1ST AND EARLY 2ND PERIODS
AS COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...THOUGH ETA/NGM SEEM JUST
A BIT SLOWER. THUS...WILL HOLD ONTO POPS INTO THE DAY FRI...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH
BEST CHANCES BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL...AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN AR. MISSING SOME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BUT MID/LOWER LEVEL PARAMETERS AND
INSTABILITY ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING. SEVERE THREAT MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
HEATING WILL BE LOST AND MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT BRUSHES BY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SVR CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE ZONES.

WILL HANG ON TO POPS FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST HALF. MAY EVEN BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FRI AFTERNOON
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT...BUT THINK MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE EAST
OF THE REGION BY THEN.

LOOKS HIGH AND DRY SAT-MON AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK IN AND TAKES
RESIDENCE. AIR WILL BE A BIT DRIER SAT-SUN...BUT WILL HEAT UP WELL
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME 30-35 DEGREE DIOURNAL TEMP CHANGES
OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE AVN/NGM MOS TEMPS.

(45)

.LIT...NONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
709 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    SUNNYDALE                 AR   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   WHITE                          TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

0535 PM    NEWARK                    AR   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   INDEPENDENCE                   TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0550 PM    SULPHUR ROCK              AR   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   INDEPENDENCE                   TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0610 PM    CALAMINE                  AR   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   SHARP                          POWER LINES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.