Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
310 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2001

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY ALL SECTIONS. THE
NORTHWEST PART WILL BE DO TO THE TRAINING EFFECT. SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE WILL GET WARMER AIR WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF STRONG CONVECTION...AS SHOWN IN THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WET FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. SOME LINGERING RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...WITH GOOD DRYING AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY...
SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTH. DRY UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE ON ACCOUNT OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN
MOS SINCE CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD BACK THE OVERNIGHT COOLING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS CLOUDS
DECREASE ONCE THE RAIN ENDS FINALLY. 32

.LIT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ARZ025-032>034-039-041>047-052>057-062>069-161900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD...TO CONWAY
TO NEWPORT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER
TODAY INTO ARKANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

MEANWHILE...THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL THEN
SWEEP THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR...A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PERSONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS COULD BE ACTIVATED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING IF
SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

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