Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...WITH
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS REGION AND DRYLINE BACKED UP INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. FRONT MAY MOVE
FARTHER NORTH WITH STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID AND UPPER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AMOUNTS OVER 1.0
INCH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND IN SUNNY AREAS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT SUNSHINE MAY
BE A PREMIUM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LIMITING INSTABILITY. STILL
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE...PERHAPS
HIGHER TO THE WEST WITH MORE SUN. WITH BOUNDARIES IN AREA...A FEW
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND INCREASES AFTER 00Z AS IS PROGGED.

STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LARGE RAIN COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATED BUT SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG 850 MB JET FEEDING STORMS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FELL YESTERDAY. TROPICAL CONNECTION
NOTED FROM BAJA FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MAY ALSO
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGH POPS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE...AND FORCING FROM LOW. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA. LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVENT WITH SEVERE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFT NE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND DRY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT... TEMPORARILY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER LATE IN WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE AND DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. NW
FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. MRF INDICATING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT
SW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER S/SW TEXAS. WARMER LATE IN WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN 80S. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.

FRIONA     50/74/49/79  5541
TULIA      50/75/50/81  6651
CHILDRESS  61/76/57/80  8765
BROWNFIELD 53/80/55/82  5544
LUBBOCK    55/78/55/80  7654
ASPERMONT  63/78/60/80  8765

.LUB...NONE.

JAMES

TXZ021>044-031830-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE
LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. GOOD
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT MAY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
&&
850MB/SFC WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS 850MB/SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. IF SOLAR INSOLATION
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF SFC FRONT
CAPES WILL BE AOA 3000J/KG. VERT WIND SHEAR PROFILES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE SUPERCELLS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WHEN THEY INTERACT WITH ANY
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES OR RIGHT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NE-SW STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM S OF CVS TO S GAG. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUT
FLOW BNDRY SOUTH OF LBB-CDS LINE. ANY STORMS MOVING NORTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTEbR
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
233 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 PM    DIMMITT                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/01   CASTRO                         REPORTED JUST SOUTH
                                          OF DIMMITT BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0306 PM    10 W TULIA                TX   1 INCH HAIL
05/03/01   SWISHER                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT AND
                                          SPOTTERS.

0310 PM    1 W TULIA                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/01   SWISHER                        REPORTED BY SPOTTERS.

ST