Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON MOVING CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR SALT LAKE CITY TO THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.
AFTER THAT ETA APPEARS TO BE ODD MAN OUT AS AVN AND NGM HAVE LOW
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH WHILE ETA MOVES LOW TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY. CANADIAN AND NAVY NOGAPS ALSO
CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION. AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL
WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE AVN. COLD FRONT AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH OF GAGE...SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO NEAR CLOVIS WITH THE DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLOVIS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE STATE LINE. WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE DAY WITH THE DRY LINE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD FRONT TO
REMAIN NEAR FORECAST AREA...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH NOT MOVING OUT
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED.

FRIONA     78/50/72/42 2422
TULIA      79/55/74/48 3532
CHILDRESS  80/61/76/54 5653
BROWNFIELD 82/58/78/50 2322
LUBBOCK    80/58/78/52 3532
ASPERMONT  80/62/80/58 4643

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08

TXZ021>044-031830-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE
LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. GOOD
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT MAY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
&&
850MB/SFC WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS 850MB/SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. IF SOLAR INSOLATION
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF SFC FRONT
CAPES WILL BE AOA 3000J/KG. VERT WIND SHEAR PROFILES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE SUPERCELLS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WHEN THEY INTERACT WITH ANY
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES OR RIGHT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NE-SW STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM S OF CVS TO S GAG. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUT
FLOW BNDRY SOUTH OF LBB-CDS LINE. ANY STORMS MOVING NORTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTEbR
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.