Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. THE DRY LINE LOCATED NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE DRY LINE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEE SWODY1
FOR DETAILS ON SEVERE WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ON EXTENDED: UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AND LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT POPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
DRY LINE REDEVELOPS.

FRIONA     57/82/55/81   323-
TULIA      58/81/56/81   612-
BROWNFIELD 63/86/59/83   312-
LUBBOCK    63/84/58/83   512-
CHIpLDRESS  65/80/60/82   712-
ASPERMONT  68/87/62/82   612-

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08

TXZ021>044-291930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM FRIONA TO BROWNFIELD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN ALONG THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR A FRIONA TO BROWNFIELD LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG DOWNBURST WIND...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

EJC

TXZ021>044-292300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH EFFECTIVE
THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

PARMER...HALL...CHILDRESS...SWISHER...CASTRO AND BRISCOE

AND THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS

HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...BAILEY...COTTLE AND LAMB

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 80 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

JJ