Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001

...FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

REMNANTS OF ALLISON REMAIN THE WEATHER MAKER AND THE FORECAST FOCUS
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING RAIN AREA RACED
NORTH TODAY AND NOW RESIDES JUST NORTH OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI FORECAST COUNTIES. FORECAST PACKAGE WILL GO WITH AVN
PACKAGE FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL DEFER TO THE ACCELERATION OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERN US RIDGE. FOR TIMING OF UPPER/MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GO
WITH VICINITY OF ATCHAFALAYA RIVER/BAY AT 06Z TONIGHT THEN HOUMA AT
12Z AND THEN BAY ST LOUIS MISSISSIPPI AREA AT 18Z MON THEN 00Z IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. WILL EXTRAPOLATE COMMA
AREA OF RAINFALL AND TIMING BASED ON THIS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT TONIGHT AND LEAVE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF WATCH TO LATER SHIFTS
AS RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. EXTENDED PACKAGE SEES SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAINTAINED THROUGH EXTENDED AND WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATE OF
SUMMER WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MCB 070/080/069/086 8944        BTR  072/080/070/087 8944
MSY 074/080/071/086 +954        GPT  073/080/071/084 u7964

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SW PASS TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
       60NM.
LA...FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080.

13

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EAST
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ADJOINING COUNTIES OF
   MISSISSIPPI...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALLISON WAS OVER ATCHAFALAYA BAY AT 10 PM. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MILES AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

.ACTIONS...REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD RELATED WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS. THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OBSERVED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).