Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
230 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW FIRING OVER
EXTREME S CENTRAL AND SE LA AND EXTENDING OVER THE MS COAST AS THE
REMNANTS OF ALLISON...NOW A TIGHT AREA OF LOW PRES...MOVES ENE
ACROSS SE LA. BOTH THE 00Z AVN AND ETA NOT INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AS BOTH HAVE THE AREA OF LOW PRES TOO FAR TO THE
W WHICH MAKES THE QPF NOT VERY RELIABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM. OF THE
TWO...THE ETA LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO THE CURRENT MESO PATTERN SO WILL
MORE OR LESS TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION STARTING 24HR OUT. IN THE
MEAN TIME...WILL GO WITH EXTRAPOLATION IN TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE
PRECIP FORECAST WHICH WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS WHERE CONVECTION
IS FIRING MOST. LIKEWISE...WILL TONE DOWN THE FFA TO INCLUDE ONLY
THOSE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A FLOODING THREAT. BEYOND THE FIRST
TWO PERIODS...WILL PRETTY MUCH LET CURRENT PACKAGE RIDE WITH
TRENDING BACK TOWARD A CLIMO PATTERN HIGHLIGHTING A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL TRENDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 082/069/087/067 3232  BTR 083/071/088/070 3232
MSY 083/072/088/072 7332  GPT 081/072/086/072 +332

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60NM
LA...FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH LAZ039>040-060>064-068>70.
MS...FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH MSZ077-080>82.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EAST
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ADJOINING COUNTIES OF
   MISSISSIPPI...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ALLISON WAS OVER ATCHAFALAYA BAY AT 10 PM. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MILES AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

.ACTIONS...REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD RELATED WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS. THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OBSERVED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).