Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...

CURRENTLY SQUALL LINE CROSSING I-45 IN THE HOUSTON AREA. PROJECTIONS
WOULD HAVE THIS LINE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA (HARDIN AND TYLER COUNTIES) CLOSE TO 3 AM. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LINE. STRONG COLD FRONT
LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S
AND 30S ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS.

FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY AS INGREDIENTS ARE
THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WHICH IS
ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG WITH CAPES OF OVER 3000 J/KG.
ALSO...JET COUPLING BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR WILL PROVIDE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME BRIEF TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH ANY
CELL MERGERS WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND AT THE BOOKENDS OF
THE SQUALL LINE.

WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG NUMBERS RANGE FROM 1 1/2 TO
2 INCHES FOR 1 HOUR TO 3 INCHES FOR 6 HOURS. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND
FLOOD WATCH TO COVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE
FIRST PERIOD AND ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING PERIOD AS 70H
TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A COOL DOWN AS LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

QUICK LOOK AT THE REST OF THE WEEK...DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

.LCH...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA.
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HIGH ISLAND TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
AEX 75/55/76/48/76/50 +30000
BPT 78/56/77/54/78/58 +00000
LCH 80/56/77/53/77/57 +20000
LFT 82/58/77/52/77/54 +30000

...ADDED SCA TO WWA LINE...
7-RUA/LGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
1257 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    PINEVILLE                 LA   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   RAPIDES                        RAPIDES 911 REPORTED TREES
                                          DOWN FROM HINESTON TO
                                          PINEVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
517 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

510 AM     BEAUMONT                  TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   JEFFERSON                      LOCAL TV MET REPORTED
                                          61 MPH WIND GUST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
558 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

545 AM     STARKS                    LA   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   CALCASIEU                      TREES BLOWN DOWN

550 AM     JOHNSON BAYOU             LA   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   CAMERON                        TREES DOWN EVERYWHERE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
618 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

330 AM     COLMESNEIL                TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   TYLER                          TREES DOWN AREAWIDE

500 AM     COUNTYWIDE                TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   HARDIN                         TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.
                                          IN SILSBEE...A TREE FELL
                                          ON A HOUSE. NO INJURIES.

500 AM     COUNTYWIDE                TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   JASPER                         TREES DOWN EVERYWHERE

515 AM     COUNTYWIDE                TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   JEFFERSON                      TREES DOWN EVERYWHERE

530 AM     BEAUMONT                  TX   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   JEFFERSON                      BUSINESSES DAMAGED ALONG
                                          CARDINAL DRIVE.