Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
146 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

...CORRECTION FOR AEX POP FROM 70 TO 40...

.TONIGHT...
GULF AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS GULF
AIR OVERRIDES FILM OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BEING PRE-CONDITIONED FOR UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT. INCOMING GULF
AIR SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS ON THE WARM SIDE (ABOUT 10 TO 15 F DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL).

.SATURDAY...
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SEEMS LIKELY. STRONG ADIABATIC LIFT WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE NGM TRAJECTORY MODEL COMPUTES A NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE 700 MB SURFACE AT +80 MB WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD). OTHER
FACTORS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDE...700-300 MB THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE...700-300 MB QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC LIFT...AND 1000-500 MB MEAN
RH NEAR 90 PERCENT.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. THE 700-
300 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR 6.5 C DEG PER KM...WHICH IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE (FOR A CLOUDY AIR PARCEL UNDERGOING AVERAGE
ENTRAINMENT IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT).

AFTER TALKING WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...I HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO I WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK) TO COVER THE REMAINDER (EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA).

SPECIAL THANKS TO HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS, SHREVEPORT OFFICES AND TO
THE HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

.LCH...FFA (FLOOD WATCH) TXZ180>182-201-215-216
    ...                  LAZ027-030-031-041-042-051

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AEX 70/78/55/76/49/73/50 4830000
BPT 73/80/56/77/55/75/58 4800000
LCH 72/80/56/77/53/75/57 4800000
LFT 70/83/58/76/52/73/54 4830000

TRARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
346 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    5 E SOUR LAKE             TX   TORNADO
10/12/01   HARDIN                         A TORNADO WAS SEEN BY
                                          SEVERAL PEOPLE NEAR HWY
                                          105...NO DAMAGED SINCE IT
                                          WAS OVER UNPOPULATED ZONE.

0304 PM    2 W BEVIL OAKS            TX   TORNADO
10/12/01   JEFFERSON                      TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR
                                          HWY 105. SEVERAL REPORTS
                                          FROM MOTORISTS.

FN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
354 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM    LUMBERTON                 TX   TORNADO
10/12/01   HARDIN                         TREES KNOCKED DOWN...NO
                                          INJURIES REPORTED.

FN

LAZ028-029-032-033-043>045-052>055-130900-

HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

...HEAVY RAINS FOR SATURDAY...

AN APPROACHING TEXAS COLD FRONT WILL LIFT A DEEP GULF AIR MASS...
THUS GENERATING TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. ALSO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR THREE INCHES. THE RAINS
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TRARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
423 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0405 PM    2 S EVADALE               TX   TORNADO
10/12/01   JASPER                         CONFIRMED TORNADO
                                          TOUCHDOWN BY THE EVADALE
                                          FIRE DEPARTMENT TRAVELING
                                          SOUTH ON HWY 105

FN