Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2001

WET FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK OR SO. FCST PROBLEMS
INCLUDE POPS/PCPN TIMING/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE
MCS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF 1 SVR TSRA WARNING/AN FFA AND AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FFG VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...IN
SOME CASES LESS THAN 1 INCH/HR AND ONLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN 3
HRS.

SFC CHART SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL POISED TO OUR SOUTH BUT
EASING NORTHWARD. BNDRY HAS BECOME FAIRLY WAVY. MODELS PUSH THE
FRONT SLOWLY NORTH THEN STALL IT OUT SOMEWHAT. 8H CHART SHOWING THAT
IT IS VERY-VERY MOIST (AND UNSTABLE) WITH THE 8H FRONT ALMOST ON TOP
OF US. SAT PICS SHOWING A LARGE OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
MCS ACTIVITY OVER MO/IL. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WE ARE IN.

EXPECT TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTED FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 84/72 TEMP/DWPT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND CNTRL/W TN AND 59/58 AT CVG. SOMEBODY IS GOING
TO PAY THE PIPER SOMEWHERE. MCS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE..CNTRL KY IS A FIRST GUESS
THOUGH. HEAVY RAINS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT RH/PWS. WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON FFA FOR RIGHT NOW BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. COULD ISSUE ONE JUST FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION DEPENDING ON LATEST
TRENDS. NGM MOS IS OFF ON A DRY TANGENT (20% POPS) AND IM GOING TO
HAVE TO DEVIATE QUITE A BIT TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY AT LEAST.
MAV POPS A LITTLE BETTER LOOKING. ETA/MESO-ETA MODELS AT LEAST HINT
AT MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL KY THEN THEY MOVE IT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AND WEAKEN IT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NGM DOESNT SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH OF A CLUE ABOUT THIS ACTIVITY.

WITH SFC BNDRY'S IN THE AREA LINGERING IN THE VICINITY...NUMEROUS
VORT MAXES/DIURNAL TRENDS/PLENTY OF RH AND INSTABILITY/MCS ACTIVITY
AND OUTFLOW BNDRYS ALL TO REMAIN IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GO ON LIKE A BROKEN RECORD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LIKELY POPS OR SO..FOR TUE-WED AND WED NIGHT.

EXTENDED...SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
GOING ON THU AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PC AND A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PLAN ON GOING WITH PC SKIES SAT-MON WITH
LOWS 50 TO 55 AND HIGHS MID-UPR 70S. CHC SHRAS ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER FROPA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUFF ON TIMING OF THINGS A WEEK OUT
SO PLAN ON HOLDING OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW.

NGM/MAV MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE. PREFER SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE MAV POPS THROUGHOUT.

WORK ZONES (SDFOZFJKL) OUT BEFORE TOO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT
TAKES ME TO GET THRU THE IFPS MAZE.

.JKL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM ED\T FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

HALL