Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2001

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW/S INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND RUNS JUST SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER.
JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY WHILE FURTHER WEST A MCS IS GOING STRONG IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ALL THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE WITH THE VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS OF THE MIZZOU COMPLEX AND ANCILLARY STORMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FLATTENING OUT THE PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE EAST KENTUCKY IN
FAST FLOW WITH THE JET STREAM JUST TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS OFFER A
VARIETY OF SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON THEIR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROLLING OVER KENTUCKY. ACCORDINGLY...WILL NOT KEY IN ON
ANY ONE SOLUTION AND TAKE THEM ALL AS AN AGGREGATE THAT POINT TO
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SFC FEATURES ARE LIKEWISE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. THE WARM FRONT VERY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AS THE LOW COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PWS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S. FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WE WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES INITIATED TO THE NORTHWEST...DIFFLUENT
THICKNESS SENDING THEIR REMAINS THIS WAY...AND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM SAID COMPLEXES. THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ORDERLY
ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AND EVENTUALLY TAKE EVERY THING BACK SOUTHEAST OF HERE BY THURSDAY.
GIVEN ALL THAT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FAIRLY WET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAYS THANKS TO THE DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED INSTABILITY. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ON NORTH WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

MAV AND NGM NUMBERS ARE AGAIN CLOSE AND SEEM REASONABLE...WILL NOT
STRAY T-OO FAR...HOWEVER WILL UP POPS IN MOST PERIODS.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE SHORTLY IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL.

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF