Severe Thunderstorm Warning 789, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001
CORRECTED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION IS TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A POTENTIAL FLOODING SITUATION IS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING AT THE PRESENT TIME OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD TO A POSITION ORIENTED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
THEN...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY MOVE
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES ALONG AND WEST OF A WINNSBORO...LOUISIANA TO ROLLING FORK
TO GREENWOOD TO GRENADA...MISSISSIPPI LINE. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE RAIN IN STORE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL ONLY MENTION SEVERE IN FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BUT BELIEVE
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALL THE WAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD
BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. POPS FOR THE FIRST THREE PERIODS WILL BE IN THE 50 TO
6O PERCENT RANGE FOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GO ABOVE AVN/NGM GUIDANCE FOR TODAY SINCE
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM AT JACKSON AND MERIDIAN ARE STILL AROUND
70...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY. WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO NGMS WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 73/64/72/53 999+
MEI 75/63/74/56 7669

.JAN...
MS...FLOOD WATCH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ZONES.
LA...FLOOD WATCH EXTREME NORTHEAST LA ZONES.
AR...FLOOD WATCH EXTREME SOUTHEAST AR ZONES.
15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1141 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    GRAND LAKE                AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
11/26/01   CHICOT                         REPORTED BY CHICOT COUNTY
                                          EMA.

1045 PM    PACE                      MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
11/26/01   BOLIVAR                        REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.