Severe Thunderstorm Warning 712, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

JUST A LITTLE BUSY TODAY WILL MAKE IT SHORT AND SWEET. CURRENT
BROKEN LINE OF MINI SUPERCELLS IS OVER EASTERN MS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY
ISSUANCE TIME. BUT BACK TO THE WEST...LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
PERSIST AND WILL MOVE NORTH. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW
AND A VERY STRONG 25H JET. OVER EAST CENTRAL TX. THE SFC COLD FRONT
IS ALSO BACK IN EAST TX WHICH IS SHOWING UP NICELY ON VIS MIG. ALSO
OF NOTE IS THE LIGHTING BACK OVER THE UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE ON GOING RAIN AND FOR
WHATEVER DEVELOPS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH...AS ONLY AN ADDITIONAL (.25 TO .75) IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. WILL MENTION SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE OVER SOME
OF THE NW ZONES...AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING COULD
DEVELOP TS WITH DIME TO NICKEL HAIL.

FOR SUN...MODELS AGREE ON THE PRECIP BEING JUST EAST OF THE AREA. SO
I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS...JUST SOME KIND OF CLEARING TREND AS
STRATO CU SHOULD STILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS NW FLOW CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A S/W MOVING DOWN THE NW FLOW MON NIGHT AND
WILL BRING US ANOTHER REINFORCING SFC HIGH.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 61/74/46/76/50 +-0
MEI 63/74/45/76/48 +-0

.JAN...
MS...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EAST MS.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 AM    RICHLAND                  MS   TORNADO
10/13/01   RANKIN                         REPORTED BY RANKIN COUNTY
                                          EMA. 2 HOUSES WITH
                                          DAMAGE. TREES DOWN.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY UNTIL 8
PM... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...MAY MAINTAIN THEIR
INTENSITY...AND REACH EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM.	THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

AT 1230 PM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EAST OF I-55 AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.  ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO ROTATE...AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.  REMEMBER...NOT ALL ROTATING STORMS PRODUCE
TORNADOES...BUT CAN FREQUENTLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.	IN ANY CASE...TAKE ALL WARNINGS SERIOUSLY...AND TAKE
COVER IF EITHER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR TORNADO WARNING
IS ISSUED.

ALL SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI FOR THE REMAINED OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55.  THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT INTO EAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THIS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...ROADS...AND SOME
RIVERS.  DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FLOODED
ROADS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CROSS BRIDGES.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
SOUTH WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WIND DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AND WATERWAYS.
DRIVERS OF CAMPERS...VANS AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD
ALSO USE CAUTION WHEN ON THE ROAD TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
119 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 PM    PRENTISS                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   JEFFERSON DAVIS                ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN
                                          AND LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR
                                          A FARM HOUSE BY THE CITY
                                          OF PRENTISS. REPORTED BY
                                          HATTIESBURG MHP.

0103 PM    5N ENTERPRISE             MS   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   CLARKE                         FOUR TREES DOWN NEAR
                                          COUNTY ROAD 337. REPORTED
                                          BY SO IN CLARKE COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
208 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 PM    STRINGER                  MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
10/13/01   JASPER                         REPORTED BY JASPER COUNTY
                                          EMA.

0158 PM    10SW ELLISVILLE           MS   TORNADO
10/13/01   JONES                          PUBLIC REPORT. NEAR
                                          HIGHWAY 59.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM                              MS   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   NESHOBA                        TREES DOWN IN THE WESTERN
                                          PART OF COUNTY. REPORTED
                                          BY S.O. FOR NESHOBA
                                          COUNTY.

0100 PM                              MS   WIND DAMAGE
10/13/01   MARION                         TREES DOWN IN THE KOKOMO
                                          AREA. REPORTED BY THE
                                          S.O. IN MARION COUNTY.

WATCH NOTIFICATION FOR TORNADO WATCH 787...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2001

MSZ029-032-037-044-049-050-055-056-063>065-072-073-132300-
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS CANCELED A PORTION OF
TORNADO WATCH 787. COUNTIES CANCELED INCLUDE:

IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI:
WEBSTER...CHOCTAW...

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI:
ATTALA...LEAKE...RANKIN...SCOTT...SIMPSON...SMITH...

IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI:
LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...MARION...LAMAR...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ACKERMAN...BRANDON...CARTHAGE...
COLLINS...COLUMBIA...EUPORA...FOREST...KOSCIUSKO...MENDENHALL...
MONTICELLO...PRENTISS...PURVIS...RALEIGH...

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-074-132300-
TORNADO WATCH 787 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI:
CLAY...LOWNDES...OKTIBBEHA...

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI:
WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...KEMPER...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...
JASPER...CLARKE...

IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI:
JONES...FORREST...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BAY SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...DE KALB...
DECATUR...HATTIESBURG...LAUREL...LOUISVILLE...MACON...MERIDIAN...
PHILADELPHIA...QUITMAN...STARKVILLE...WEST POINT...