Severe Thunderstorm Warning 653, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

...TWO PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...

PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
MINNESOTA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TEXAS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERAL TORNADO WATCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. TORNADO
WATCHES COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MISSISSIPPI PORTION OF
THE WATCH IS VALID TILL 6 PM WITH ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND LOUISIANA
PARISHES WEST OF MISSISSIPPI IN A TORNADO WATCH TILL 3 PM. EXPECT
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO PHILADELPHIA TO COLUMBIA...MISSISSIPPI LINE...BUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH. THE STRONGEST
RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
THEN...THE AVN IS MUCH FASTER TO MOVE A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH
EASTWARD. THE AVN IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER IN MOVING A SURFACE
LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 06Z SATURDAY. SINCE THE
AVN FORECAST IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WILL STICK
WITH THIS MODEL FORECAST FOR THIS ZONE PACKAGE. USING AVN MODEL
FORECAST...BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. THE 300 MB JET PATTERN SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO FURTHER ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY RAINFALL EVENT...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF
FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIME AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES FOR
THIRD AND FOURTH PERIOD. HOWEVER...DO BELIEVE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSEST TO NGM MOS
GUIDANCE SINCE I THINK THE WARMER MINIMUMS ARE MORE LIKELY THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES TO PREVAIL
BY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

QPF...00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA TO SHIFT
INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY THIS EVENING WITH 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN EASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LESS THAN ONE FOURTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND LOUISIANA
PARISHES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WX OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF COUNTRY. DRY
DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 068/083/070/074  +277
MEI 068/082/069/075  +357

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MILES AN HOUR AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF DIMES. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...PRODUCING SLOW MOVING BANDS OF RAIN THAT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING STANDING WATER ON ROADS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1228 PM    8S BASTROP                LA   WIND DAMAGE
10/11/01   MOREHOUSE                      TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
204 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    LAKE VILLAGE              AR   WIND DAMAGE
10/11/01   CHICOT                         A FEW TREES DAMAGED.
                                          VETERINARIAN CLINIC
                                          AWNING DAMAGED. DUMPSTER
                                          BLOWN OVER. REPORTED BY
                                          CHICOT COUNTY EMA.

0125 PM    6NW VICKSBURG             MS   TORNADO
10/11/01   WARREN                         SPOTTER REPORTED A
                                          TORNADO ON THE
                                          GROUND.REPORTED BY WARREN
                                          COUNTY EMA.