Severe Thunderstorm Warning 651, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

A QUICK DISCUSSION FOR THE UPDATE. REMOVED ANY MORNING WORDING AND
IN A FEW LOCATIONS MENTIONED AFTERNOON TIMING. ALSO LOWERED POPS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SE. THIS LOCATION HAS BETTER MOISTURE (LIX 12Z
SOUNDING) AND THERE ARE SMALL SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE OTHER MAIN CHANGES ARE FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED POPS TO
TREND ON THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE
CWA. I LEFT LIKELY WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS THE LIKELY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL BE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THOSE PARISHES. LOWERED POPS
EAST OF THE RIVER AS MAIN RAIN AREA SHOULDNT MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 6
AM.

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MILES AN HOUR AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF DIMES. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...PRODUCING SLOW MOVING BANDS OF RAIN THAT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING STANDING WATER ON ROADS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1228 PM    8S BASTROP                LA   WIND DAMAGE
10/11/01   MOREHOUSE                      TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          POLICE.