Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

ETA/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN THAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE...OVER NM AT 12Z...WILL EJECT RAPIDLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT
WITH SW MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH E TX/E OK WITH GOOD LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT UNSTABLE WITH CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG AND
HELICITIES 300-500 M2/S2.

WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...STILL EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. GOOD DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FROM 300-850
MB SHOULD DIMINISH...HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER JET LIFTS
OUT WITH THE WAVE. GOOD LOW LEVEL JET...IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS...WILL
CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE. ALSO...BOTH ETA/AVN
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAVY RAIN WORDING...BUT SPEED OF SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP FALLING IN THE INITIAL ONE-TWO HOURS
AFTER STARTING AND AVERAGE REMAINING AROUND ONE INCH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY
FOR A SHORT WHILE. FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN OVER IT EVIDENT BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE 295-310K THETA LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIP TO REACH THE
GROUND BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE EXTREME S AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN AS IT USUALLY IS...WHILE THE AVN IS NOT FAR BEHIND.

GOOD SLOPE OF THETA SURFACES ALONG WITH 25 KNOT AVERAGE WINDS
THROUGH THE 295-310K THETA LAYER WILL RESULT IN GOOD PRESSURE
ADVECTION WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MRF SHOWING WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO C MS BY TUE MORNING...
BECOMING COLD AGAIN AND PUSHING INTO S SECTIONS BY WED MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH...BOUNDARY GETS STUCK OVER THE COAST WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING BACK UP THU INTO FRI. NOGAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH PRECIP COMING BACK NORTH...NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. NOGAPS ALSO
HAS DIFFERING SOLUTION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WITH FRONT
NOT SO INCLINED TO BACK UP AGAIN. NCEP LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
MRF...WILL DO THE SAME.

EVEN THOUGH MIXED LAYER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN AT CRITERIA LEVEL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER SQUALL LINE PASSES.

JAN 56/70/45/64 9-24
MEI 58/72/45/65 9224

.JAN...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS EVENING.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS EVENING.
AR...WIND ADVISuORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS EVENING.
26

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS WHICH SEE SOME SUNSHINE. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR TORNADOES.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND REACH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES MISSISSIPPI...SO
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATEST IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ONE TO TWO
HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ONLY LAST FOR ONE OR TWO HOURS...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH
OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO SVR WX OUTLINE AREA...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
645 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A TALLULAH LA...TO ROLLING FORK...TO GREENWOOD MS LINE.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TORNADOES...OVER THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH EASTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED AND STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ONE TO TWO
HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ONLY LAST FOR ONE OR TWO HOURS...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

...WIND...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH
OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.