Severe Thunderstorm Warning 545, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2001

AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
JUST TO THE WEST. SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS PRODUCING
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PIX SHOW SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM MO RAPIDLY FALLING APART. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED WRN TN INTO NE MS. THIS HAS HELD TOGETHER
PRETTY WELL SO FAR AND WILL POSE A THREAT OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER NERN FORECAST AREA ZONES. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
AREA OVER NE ZONES FOR TONIGHT. CONVECTION NOTED OVER OTHER AREAS
SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SOON AFTER DARK. CONVECTION NE MS
SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING MCS THAT COULD AFFECT NRN MS
OVERNIGHT.

ETA MODEL HAS BEEN WEAKER ON SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT LAST FEW RUNS AND HAS LOOKED BETTER THAT OTHER MODELS.
REMNANTS OF SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NE MS OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SWD THURSDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK
RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO AIR MASS INSTABILITY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING SWD IN NLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER. GOOD
INCREASE IN MEAN RH FIELD ALSO NOTED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SHIFT SWD BUT LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DECREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DRIER MEAN
RH FIELD SEEN TO REAR OF BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
EDGES SWD IN ITS WAKE.

TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE COOLER STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STARTS. MOS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPS
INDICATED INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING BY MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THE RISE. Y

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 079/095 074/089 2345
MEI 073/094 073/089 2344

.JAN...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THU WRN ZONES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THU
AR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THU

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THESE
AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD
NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI.

IF YOU MUST WORK OUTDOORS...TRY TO DO YOUR WORK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND GET IN
THE SHADE AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDEvS THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.