Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

DATA ANALYSIS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE SIMPLISTIC...AND
DECISION-MAKING LARGELY INTUITIVE AS THE LASTEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT FOUND IN ANY SOLUTION. AT
LEAST THE AVN AND RUC SHOW THE BANDED FEATURE...ONLY THEY ARE WELL
WEST OF REALITY. OVERALL...MODEL DETAILS AND QPF CANNOT BE TRUSTED.

FOR TODAY...TS ALLISON WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER ERN TX. BASED ON
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE WEAKENING TS ALLISON
DRIFTING NORTH AND STALLING OVER EXTREME E TX...BELIEVE THE BEST
FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN ASSOC MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...WILL GO CATEGORICAL
POPS AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN OVER WRN ZONES. OVER ERN/CNTRL
ZONES...WILL GO LIKELY POPS GIVEN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS AND
POSSIBLE FOCUS FROM REMANTS OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND.

FOR TONIGHT THRU THUR NIGHT...WHILE MODEL DETAILS ARE IN
DISARRAY...THEY DO AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE INCLUDING THE GENERAL
NWD DRIFT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ITS INCREASING EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING AND SHIFT HEAVY
RAIN EMPHASIS EASTWARD WITH TIME WITH EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
BEST INFLOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE UKMET/MRF/AVN SUPPORT THE
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARjE PLANNED.

JAN 83/72/84/70 7776
MEI 85/70/84/69 6676

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON WHICH HAS
MOVED INTO EAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER
WEST IN WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

...FLOODING...
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LAKE VILLAGE...ARKANSAS TO YAZOO CITY TO
CANTON TO RALEIGH TO LAUREL TO HATTIESBURG MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALLISON HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
EAST OF ALLISON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN STREET PONDING AND
ACCUMULATION OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.