Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

FORECAST WILL BE A WET ONE IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
FAIRLY WELL IN THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCES LIE
IN THE DETAILS...AGAIN.

REMNANTS OF ALLISON WILL BE PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF THE CWFA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST) OF
THE CWFA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24
HOURS...AND  ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A GRENADA TO FOREST TO HATTIESBURG LINE WILL BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE INDICATING THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. THIS IS WHERE THE 30 TO 40 KT LLJ WILL
SET UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IS ALSO THE PRIME AREA FOR
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVES AND THE GREATEST LIFT. THIS AXIS SHOULD
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH ON THURSDAY...AS BEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE MIGRATING TO THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
REMAINING FROM ALLISON...THE FRONT COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINS UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BEHIND THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST HAS THIS TREND HANDLED
WELL...AND WILL ONLY ADD CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY.

GUIDANCE: TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. FOR
POPS...WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST (CATEGORICAL)
TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (GOOD CHANCE) FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE PRECIP AXIS IN THE SAME REGION ON THURSDAY...WILL KEEP THE
POPS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THIS FAIRLY WELL
HANDLED AND WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY...DONT SEE ANY REASON WHY POPS SHOULD
DROP SO DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE POPS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOK OK...SINCE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT.

JAN 72/84/70/86 8765
MEI 71/82/71/84 7755

.JAN...
MS... FFA ZONES 018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>
                056-059>066-072>074.
LA...FFA ALL ZONES.
AR...FFA ALL ZONES.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI MAY BE SEVERE.

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON MOVE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...A SERIES OF WEATHER IMPULSES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE TEXAS
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS
OF WEST AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED...WEAK TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASSES.

...FLOODING...
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SERIES OF WEATHER IMPULSES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST
OF MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WEST OF
A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH TO HATTIESBURG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER STORMS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.