Severe Thunderstorm Warning 411, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

VERY WET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THINGS ARE GOING TO TOWN RIGHT NOW OVER
THE AREA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PATTERN TRANSITION WITH ETA BEING A LITTLE BETTER WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DEEP...MOIST S/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK
UPPER LOW OFF UPPER TX COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR EVENING SHWRS/STORMS
WILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NE AHEAD OF NWD MOVING SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND WHERE AIRMASS WILL
BE MUCH MORE STABLE AS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY NOT MUCH GOING ON.
ALSO...CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WILL LEND TO ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST
AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND NWD MOVING
BOUNDARY. SCT-BKN STRATUS REFORMING OVERNIGHT THINGS DECOUPLE. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE IN EAST ZONES WHERE WINDS COULD GO LIGHT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF SHWRS/STORMS INCREASE
AS PWATS RISE TO 2.00+ OVER A GOOD PART OF THE REGION AND SLOW
APPROACH OF NW GULF IMPULSE ALONG THE LA COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...
RRQ OF 45-55KT SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL SET UP OVER THE MS DELTA INTO
THE TN VALLEY WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT/
UPGLIDE WITH HIGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE. GOING WITH SCATTERED
POPS NORTH-CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH TUESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
POPS AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN
PD TO ADD TO THE MIX. AGREE WITH AVN/HPC QPF/S THROUGH THIS TIME OF
2-3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF.

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ISSUANCE RIGHT NOW WITH FAIRLY DRY SOILS AND
STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE INVESTIGATED BY LATER
SHIFTS AS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. LIKE WETTER MAV POPS AND COOLER MAV
HIGHS IN THIS SITUATION FOR OBVIOUS REASONS. LOWS MAINLY LOWER 70S.

.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE W-CENTRAL U.S THURSDAY WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING NW. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THURS
EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE RAINY PATTERN. DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMS...(MAY CHANGE PER RADAR TRENDS BEFORE PACKAGE TIME)
JAN 74/85/70/81 48++
MEI 72/84/69/81 57++

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1101 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND IN
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A BASTROP...LOUISIANA
TO JACKSON TO MERIDIAN LINE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES
TO BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES HUMID
GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PROVIDE RAINFALL TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD MOVE MANY MILES INLAND IN
THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO JACKSON TO LAUREL.
BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN MAKE WATERS CHOPPY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
204 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE AND TALLULAH LOUSIANA, TO
MENDENHALL, TO RALEIGH, TO QUITMAN MISSISSIPPI LINE INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF BASTROP LOUISIANA, CROSSET ARKANSAS, VICKSBURG, JACKSON,
MERIDIAN, PHILADELPHIA, GREENWOOD, GREENVILLE, GRENADA, STARKVILLE,
AND COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVIATION OF STORMS SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA,
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DUE TO VERY HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A SLOW...
NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GREEN-SHADED AREAS WHICH CAN CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
...SMALL CREEKS AND RAVINES AND STREETS.

REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY AND STRONG IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  BOATERS AND RECREATIONISTS ON AREA LAKES
SHOULD BE AWARE OF CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS MAY BECOME
VERY GUSTY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL BE
10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE SHADED AREA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.