Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2001

COLD FRONT IS POISED TO ENTER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWFA. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE FRONT JUST WEST OF GLH. A COUPLE OF INTERESTING
THINGS TO NOTE: DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH (GLH,GWO,CBM) ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWFA HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THIS INDICATES MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GOOD CU FIELD IS ALSO POPPING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 88D
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NE MS AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT IS THE MAIN PERIOD IN QUESTION. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ALONG THE
GULF COAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...
IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LIS WILL RANGE FROM -2
TO -6...CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT...AND THE
K INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. ALSO...RRQ OF 250 JET WILL BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TONIGHT. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY GOOD MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT. THAT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SCATTERED IN NATURE (LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE) AND MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE CWFA WILL
BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DEFINITELY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL
ON THE MINS...BUT MAX TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY REASONABLE. WILL MAKE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY TAKE AVERAGE BETWEEN
MAV AND MOS FOR MINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH OVER THE
CWFA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN 55/78/54/81 3100
MEI 55/78/52/82 4100

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A
CROSSETT ARKANSAS TO INDIANOLA LINE...AND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO QUITMAN LINE.  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF JACKSON...
VICKSBURG...GREENWOOD...COLUMBUS...AND NATCHEZ IN MISSISSIPPI...AND
BASTROP...TALLULAH AND VIDALIA IN LOUISIANA. ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OVER THESE AREAS.

NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA
ACROSS BOTH NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE
59 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES IS MINIMAL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    CALEDONIA                 MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/24/01   LOWNDES                        LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0210 AM    EUPORA                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/24/01   WEBSTER                        PUBLIC REPORTED
                                          NUMEROUS LARGE TREE
                                          LIMBS DOWN.